Grand Junction has tied a record low this morning recording 58° at 6am (previous record was set in 1909 and 1896). After the cool start to the day afternoon highs are expected to remain a good 10° below normal for most locations. The focus of storms and showers shifts to the south today with activity firing over the San Juan Mountains by late morning and then spreading over into the valleys this afternoon and evening. Plenty of moisture still in place so expect locally heavy rainfall and potential for more mud slides near steep terrain. Storms will be a bit more isolated across our northern zones with subtle drying going on in the atmosphere. Due to a somewhat drier air mass the afternoon storms will diminish by late in the evening. Any lingering overnight activity will be limited to our south-central valleys due to excessive moisture down that way.
An embedded disturbance traveling from the central can coast will pass over the northern half of the forecast area on Friday. This will provide an additional boost to the daytime instability. However, the more unstable north will also be the driest portion of the forecast area. So while the north is in a better position for the disturbance...the south has the better moisture. Therefore expect we will again see showers and thunderstorms develop during the afternoon mainly over the higher terrain. Heavy rain will not be as likely due to the less available moisture. And do not expect the rain production to be quite as efficient as it has been the past couple of days. Moisture drops off by Saturday and with fewer clouds around our temperatures will climb to 80's and 90's in lower valleys. A ridge will move off to our east by Sunday which will open up the doors to a deep monsoon flow by Sunday. Heavy rains and the threat of flash flooding will return. Temperatures will drop off again into the 70's and 80's. Drier weather is once again anticipated by the middle of next week.
Meteorologist Jared Robinson Jared.Robinson@kkco11news.com