Grand Junction(KKCO)-The latest model runs are much wetter than previous runs in the short term. Both models are showing an increasing in southwest moisture through Monday. Expect increased clouds and chance of rain over the southern sections tonight. These storms at the onset will be high-based with little precipitation. Expect more efficient rain producers across the southern half of the forecast area Monday afternoon into Monday evening with more high-based storms north of interstate 70 especially at the onset.
A short wave ridge is forecasted to move across the region on Tuesday causing drier conditions. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over southern/central mountains still expected through Tuesday.
Tuesday night through Friday, models have been flopping around with the extended solution. Latest model run is drier Tuesday night into Wednesday than previous run. Chance of rain slightly lowered during this period; however, with southwest moist flow in place expect more activity late Wednesday into Friday night. Models are also showing several waves being ejected across the area in this southwest flow. Timing is uncertain at this time but these waves will act as a trigger to focus convection. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue through Friday, with the best focus across the southern half the forecast area.
Saturday through Sunday, models show ridge will build over the intermountain west as a trough moves inland over the Pacific Northwest. Models continue trend of drier weather for valleys with a slight chance of rain over southern/central mountains.