Storms are scarce early this week, more abundant after Wednesday

Showers and storms will be few and mostly over the mountains on Tuesday.
Showers and storms will be few and mostly over the mountains on Tuesday.(KKCO)
Published: Jun. 27, 2022 at 5:52 PM MDT
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GRAND JUNCTION, Colo. (KKCO) - A drier first half of this week will be followed by the return of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday. That chance for rain will linger through this weekend.

Our Next 24 Hours

This evening, any showers or thunderstorms will mostly be attached to the mountains. You may see them boiling up in the distance, but away from the mountains we’ll mostly stay dry beneath a mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky. We’ll cool through the 80s and into the 70s through 10 PM. Tonight will be mostly clear. The low temperatures will be near 62 degrees around Grand Junction and 56 degrees around Montrose. Tuesday will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy and seasonably warm. High temperatures will be near 95 degrees around Grand Junction and 90 around Montrose. Shower and thunderstorms will mainly stay over or near the mountains. Those few showers and storms that form can be locally heavy.

Warm & Dry Through Wednesday

High pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere is the primary feature influencing our weather this week. The wind flow around that high pressure will shift as the high pressure center itself shifts. The wind flow will be from the north on Tuesday and Wednesday down the eastern side of the high pressure. That’s a mainly dry wind, and sinking air associated with high pressure will combine with that dry wind to suppress most of the showers and thunderstorms that try to develop. Upslope winds along the mountains will help showers and storms form there, but they’ll have some difficulty away from the mountains.

Showers and T’Storms Return Thursday

That high pressure center will shift east of us and offer a more southerly wind flow, transporting more monsoon moisture back into Colorado. An upper level low pressure wave will set up along the West Coast and help provide the energy to convert the moisture into showers and thunderstorms. That means showers and storms will increase on Thursday and Friday, and they’ll be with us through this weekend. Longer range forecast data hint at a stronger storm system on Monday that could mean more widespread showers and thunderstorms.

Daytime showers and thunderstorms may have some difficulty away from the mountains. Dry air in the lowest 5,000-10,000 feet of the atmosphere may mean a lot of the rain is evaporating before it can fall all the way from the cloud to the ground. The cooling in the evenings increases the humidity, so much of the rain in the valleys may fall in the evenings as opposed to the afternoons.

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