Heading into a warm weekend with mountain storms

GRAND JUNCTION, Colo. (KKCO) - We’re heading into a weekend drier than we had previously anticipated.

Stronger-than-expected low pressure tracking inland over British Columbia early Thursday and is helping to punt the monsoon moisture flow from the south to our east. We’re going to complicate things by adding high pressure behind that low pressure, all of which will track north of us but will influence our weather. The east-to-west wind flow south of the high pressure’s center will favor an upslope wind on the Front Range. That favors rain and thunder along and east of the Continental Divide. But that east-to-west wind flow also favors a downslope wind off of the Continental Divide along the Western Slope. Downslope winds are dry, warm winds, so odds are against showers and storms this weekend. The exception is that stray storm or two that pop up in the heat of the afternoon.

This Weekend’s Forecast

Both Saturday and Sunday will be warm. Highs will be in the mid-90s around Grand Junction and near 90 around Montrose. Lows will be close to 70 around Grand Junction with lower 60s around Montrose. The chance for rain is small overall for both days. The biggest potential for rain will be down south around Montrose from any storms that blow off of the San Juans.

Our Next 24 Hours

This evening will be partly cloudy. We’ll cool slowly through the 90s and into the 80s after 8 PM, then into the 70s by 1 AM. An isolated shower or thunderstorm can’t be ruled out, but even over the mountains rain is lacking. We’ll be mostly clear overnight. Low temperatures by morning will be near 70 degrees around Grand Junction and 63 degrees around Montrose. Saturday will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy with a small chance for a stray shower or thunderstorm. The biggest chance for rain, by far, will be well east of us in the High Country - specifically along the Continental Divide.

Looking Ahead To Next Week

The unseasonably warm and mostly dry weather pattern will hold through at least Wednesday of next week. Tuesday will likely be the warmest day in the stretch. We’ll cool slightly on Wednesday, then more on Thursday and Friday, but we’ll spend the second half of next week in seasonable warmth. Long-range forecast data suggests increasing moisture on Thursday and Friday, which could mean the return of showers and storms. However, as we saw this week, a lot can change in that week.