Showers and storms possible Thursday evening

GRAND JUNCTION, Colo. (KKCO) - Consistency has been the weather game so far this week, now we’re looking ahead to some changes. Those changes include some cooling and an increasing chance for showers and storms for at least some of our area.

Our Next 24 Hours

This evening will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy with a small chance for a stray shower or thunderstorm. Most showers and storms will stay over the mountains. We’ll cool from mid-to-upper 90s around 6 PM to 80s by 9 PM. The rest of tonight will be mostly clear. Low temperatures will be near 70 degrees around Grand Junction and 62 degrees around Montrose. Thursday will start mostly sunny. We’ll warm quickly through the 70s and 80s and into the 90s by noon. Clouds will increase after midday. High temperatures will be near 96 degrees around Grand Junction and 90 degrees around Montrose. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible from the late afternoon through the evening, even in the valleys. Storms can contain frequent lightning. Rain is most likely after sunset if it’s going to happen in the valleys.

Thursday Evening’s Chance For Rain

A disturbance will form and track over the top of us late Thursday afternoon and evening. That will take the increasing moisture and hoist it up high into the atmosphere. Clouds will increase, then showers and storms are possible Thursday evening. The biggest chance for rain is when we cool off and the humidity increases after sunset. A shower is possible during the day, but it will have to be exceptionally have for the rain to reach the ground instead of evaporating.

The Why Behind The Forecast

High pressure has been the primary feature influencing our weather this week. The center of the clockwise wind flow around high pressure has gradually shifted eastward. Early in the week, the wind from the north along the eastern edge of the high pressure kept dry. Now that the circulation center has slipped east of us, the wind flow is picking up from the south along the western edge of the high pressure. A wind from the south is a more humid wind. The depth of the atmosphere will gradually humidify. Upslope winds along the mountains will help generate showers and thunderstorms.

Looking Ahead

This pattern will hold through the weekend, and showers and storms will be around, but most of us will be dry than not. There’s some indication that a bigger storm system could affect us early next week. That could mean a bigger round of storms on Monday or Tuesday. It’s far enough ahead that a lot can change, but with new data and measurements of the atmosphere and increasing confidence, we may be able to trend up to a bigger chance for rain for early next week.

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